UK - Future outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can be controlled effectively and quickly with vaccinations - saving millions of pounds and hundreds of thousands of livestock - according to research by the University of Warwick.Dr Michael Tildesley and Naomi Bradbury from the School of Life Sciences have discovered that a key issue for successfully containing and eradicating a FMD outbreak is to establish how many animals can be vaccinated per day, and tailor controls accordingly.Using a mathematical model of the UK farming landscape, Dr Tildesley and colleagues simulated numerous scenarios of infection - to varying levels of severity and speed - calculating the most effective and efficient approaches to stave the spread of disease.Many dangerous uncertainties exist when dealing with epidemics like FMD, such as: the efficacy of vaccinations, the time it takes for livestock to become immune after receiving vaccines, and the number of vaccine doses available. Uncertainty leads to huge potential losses of both money and livestock.
根據(jù)英國華威大學(xué)的研究顯示，未來的口蹄疫疫情可以通過疫苗接種而被迅速和有效的控制，從而節(jié)省上百萬英鎊，挽救成百上千的牲畜。生命科學(xué)學(xué)院的娜奧米·布拉德伯里與邁克爾·蒂爾茲利博士已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個可以成功遏制和根除口蹄疫疫情的關(guān)鍵問題，即建立一套統(tǒng)計每天接種疫苗動物數(shù)量的機制，并相應(yīng)的對疫苗接種做出調(diào)整控制。蒂爾茲利博士和他的同事通過使用英國農(nóng)業(yè)景觀的數(shù)學(xué)模型，按照不同的疫情嚴(yán)重程度和感染速度，對許多感染狀況進行了仿真，計算出了避免疾病傳播的最有效和最高效的方法。在處理像口蹄疫這樣的傳染病時，存在著許多危險的不確定性，比如：疫苗藥效、牲畜在接種疫苗后對疾病免疫的耗費時間，可用的疫苗藥劑數(shù)量。不確定性會導(dǎo)致金錢和牲畜受到巨額的潛在損失。
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